Numbers in the New Year

Written for the High Plains Journal

Typically, in this last week of the year, I write about the biggest farming news stories of the year. In 2024, I can sum that up in 2 words: LAND GRAB. Without question, the movement this year has been to control as much of the land mass, not only in the United States but worldwide. The land grab is not only coming in waves of land purchases but the one that has me the most concerned is easements and control of the land without the easement author paying the mortgage or the property taxes. The reason so many are willing to sign away control is the need for the revenue just to stay in business. One must really ask the question, are you still in business if the land is no longer controlled by you?

This week I had Gabe Brown on my Across the Pond TV program with Damian Buckley from New Zealand. For those that may not know, Gabe farms in North Dakota and has been on the forefront of the “regenerative agriculture” movement. I will go on to say that I do not get hung up in these terms because through the years we have allowed them to be hijacked, and they really don’t mean what they were intended to mean. But I think regardless of terminology, we can agree that it means we plan to leave the soil in better health at the end of each year.

Gabe said he has been speaking to farmer groups all across the country in 2024 and telling them that he is going to show a nice profit this year. He went on to say that 97% of the farm production his family grows is sold directly to the consumer. His cost of corn production was $1.44/bushel. Yet most of us in the farming world are talking about the high input costs leading to a disastrous 2024.

Interesting timing that, just as I sat down to write this piece, I received an email from a gentleman that was challenging the standard thoughts on our current beef cow numbers. In a nutshell, he is questioning the number of cows that the United States needs. He is wondering why many seem to think you must have 1000 cows and a bunch of employees to be viable in the beef business. I think the factors for answering this question should not be difficult.

In the US alone, we have 330 million people consuming food each day. We have been hovering just below 30 billion lbs of beef consumed annually. If you do that math, each 1300 lb. (live weight) steer generates 520 lbs. of consumable beef so we eat the equivalent of 57 million head of cattle each year. In my opinion, this is a two-fold health issue considering both the health of the ecosystem and the health of human beings.

Regarding the beef industry, the biggest lies and the acceleration of those lies hit new highs in 2024. To maintain the best soil health without the efforts of a ruminant animal is tough. It is not impossible, but it is tough. Factor in that 70% of the U.S. land mass will not grow crops suitable for people to eat but will feed ruminant animals and then you recognize that grazing is VITAL for this nation.

Regarding human health, it is clear that products from ruminant animals are the most efficient and nutrition dense food items on the planet. A simple 3 oz serving (who eats 3 oz?) gives you more nutrients than any other food substance available. To close out the discussion about how many cows we need, I think we need about twice the number we currently have because the number everyone should really be looking at in 2024 is the fact that our beef imports have doubled and we are now the largest importer of beef in the world. That is problematic.

In closing, the outlook for 2025 is what you make it. If you continue to produce a commodity product and are led by the nose from the industry supply entity, you will be either completely dependent on subsidies (which the nation can no longer afford) or you will be seeking employment from someone else.

I suppose this has been said many times through the years but 2025 is a pivotal year for farmers in the US with a projected agricultural trade deficit of $45 billion by June. Someone explain to me why we have even $1 of agricultural trade deficit? Happy New Year to all and remember that the new year will be what you make it.